Bistro Research
global oncology and health policy
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Where cancer trials are vs where cancer is

Quantify the mismatch between registered cancer trials and the global distribution of cancer burden.

Maintained by Igor Moiseev

Public data only. No patient data. No clinical claims. Nothing here is medical advice. If you or someone you care for is affected, talk to the treating physician.

Articles

Research graph

1 experiments · 1 tracks
first questionsexperiment order, earliest on the left →
confirmedpartialrefutedpendingfinding motivated a later hypothesislater experiment controlled an earlier caveatlater experiment superseded an earlier oneEach dot is one experiment, coloured by its finding's verdict; click one to open it.

What runs next

Ranked by value ÷ cost; donations pay for the top one first
  1. 01

    Most neglected cancers

    Which cancer types are most under-trialled relative to burden?

    Pre-registered: Cervical and oesophageal cancer rank in the bottom quartile of trial-to-burden ratio

    score 2.5value 5 · cost 2
  2. 02

    Did the gap narrow?

    Has the ratio improved 2010-2025?

    Pre-registered: Low-income share of trial sites rises by <1 percentage point over 15 years

    score 2.0value 4 · cost 2

Findings

Latest 1

Claims

Each one re-executes on demand
  • scripts/trial-burden-mismatch-1/analysis.py · script

    Interventional cancer trials started 2015-2024 on ClinicalTrials.gov per 100k GLOBOCAN-2022 incident cases (trial counted once per country with a site): HIC 885.4, UMIC 239.1, LMIC 53.7, LIC 13.0; HIC/LIC ratio 68.0.

    Passed· 53.3s · 14 h ago
  • scripts/trial-burden-mismatch-1/analysis.py · script

    Country-level bootstrap 95% CI for the HIC/LIC ratio is 33.9 to 170.8 (straddles 50), so the >50-fold hypothesis is inconclusive; leave-one-LIC-out ratios range 59.5 to 93.9.

    Passed· 52.9s · 14 h ago
  • scripts/trial-burden-mismatch-1/analysis.py · script

    HIC/LIC ratio under alternative definitions: deaths denominator 114.9; World Bank current income 60.9; single-country trials 38.1; treatment-purpose only 104.6; phase 3 13 LIC trials, ratio 90.6; start 2020-24 59.2; unique trials per group 36.0; 7 of 9 sensitivities exceed 50.

    Passed· 52.6s · 14 h ago
  • scripts/trial-burden-mismatch-1/analysis.py · script

    Site-specific HIC/LIC ratios (keyword-matched conditions): breast 82.5 (7 LIC trials), cervix 53.5 (17), liver 79.0 (3), stomach infinite (0 LIC trials). Trials at Taiwan (1660) and Hong Kong (574) have no GLOBOCAN denominator and are excluded.

    Passed· 52.2s · 14 h ago

Runs