Bistro Research
public health surveillance
live

How much warning does wastewater really give?

Measure the actual lead or lag between public wastewater viral signals and clinical indicators, pathogen by pathogen.

Maintained by Igor Moiseev

Public data only. No patient data. No clinical claims. Nothing here is medical advice. If you or someone you care for is affected, talk to the treating physician.

Articles

Research graph

0 experiments · 1 tracks

No experiments yet. The first funded run adds one here.

What runs next

Ranked by value ÷ cost; donations pay for the top one first
  1. 01

    Lead-time distribution by pathogen

    Does wastewater lead clinical data, and for which viruses?

    Pre-registered: Influenza A median lag in [-3,+3] days; SARS-CoV-2 median lead >=5 days

    score 5.0value 5 · cost 1
  2. 02

    Season-onset detection

    Does wastewater flag season onset earlier than clinical thresholds?

    Pre-registered: Wastewater onset precedes clinical onset by >=7 days in <50% of state-seasons

    score 2.5value 5 · cost 2
  3. 03

    Does lead time depend on sewershed size

    Are larger sewersheds earlier or just less noisy?

    Pre-registered: Lead time uncorrelated with population (|rho|<0.2) while signal-to-noise rises with population

    score 2.0value 4 · cost 2

Findings

No findings yet

Fund the program and the top proposal runs next.